In July we wrote that the margin tailwind had just turned, and named this release as the one to watch. If printing output prices jumped, the industry had repriced with a one-quarter lag. They did not jump. Output prices have now been flat for two quarters running, up 0.05 per cent in total since March, while input prices added 2.11 per cent over the same six months.
The two series, quarter by quarter
| Quarter | Input | change | Output | change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec-24 | 134.6 | n/a | 182.9 | n/a |
| Mar-25 | 134.4 | -0.15% | 185.4 | +1.37% |
| Jun-25 | 134.1 | -0.22% | 185.0 | -0.22% |
| Sep-25 | 134.0 | -0.07% | 195.1 | +5.46% |
| Dec-25 | 134.7 | +0.52% | 197.9 | +1.44% |
| Mar-26 | 137.5 | +2.08% | 201.7 | +1.92% |
| Jun-26 | 139.3 | +1.31% | 201.5 | -0.10% |
| Sep-26 | 140.4 | +0.79% | 201.8 | +0.15% |
None of the earlier quarters was revised in this release: every index number from December 2024 to June 2026 matches the cubes we read in July.
Why the year flipped
Part of this is arithmetic, and it is worth being plain about. The September 2025 quarter, when printing output prices jumped 5.46 per cent, has now dropped out of the through-the-year comparison. While it sat inside the window, output was up more than 8 per cent over the year in every quarter. With it gone, the year to September 2026 shows output up 3.43 per cent, and almost all of that came in the December and March quarters.
The other part is not arithmetic. Input prices kept rising: 4.78 per cent through the year, the fastest annual rise in the printing input index since the June quarter 2023. We read the full series back to 2001 to place it: the last run of quarters in which printing inputs rose faster over the year than outputs was September 2022 to June 2023.
| Year to | Input | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Dec-25 | +0.07% | +8.20% |
| Mar-26 | +2.31% | +8.79% |
| Jun-26 | +3.88% | +8.92% |
| Sep-26 | +4.78% | +3.43% |
Printing went against manufacturing
The striking thing in this release is how different printing looks from the manufacturing
sector around it. Across all of manufacturing, the ABS reports input prices fell
1.0 per cent this quarter and output prices fell 1.3 per cent, led by
oil-linked products, with crude oil prices coming off their peak in June quarter 2026
.
Printing’s input index rose 0.79 per cent in the same quarter.
The relief that did arrive is in freight. The ABS reports road freight transport output prices fell 3.0 per cent and courier pick-up and delivery fell 3.3 per cent, both on lower fuel surcharges, after the June quarter’s 15.5 per cent jump in road freight. It also says freight costs for imported goods stayed elevated on higher shipping costs, which matters to anyone buying imported substrate.
The economy-wide number is final demand, excluding exports: up 1.1 per cent for the quarter and 3.6 per cent through the year.
What this does and does not prove
Our reading, labelled as such. For a year the printing story in these indexes was output prices well ahead of input prices. That lead is shrinking from both ends: two flat quarters of output, and inputs that kept climbing even in a quarter when manufacturing inputs as a whole fell. On the rebased chart the gap between the lines was about 8 points at its widest, in the December and March quarters. It is now 6.0. If inputs keep rising and output stays flat, the repricing the industry did in 2025 is being worn away.
The same limits apply as in July. These are price indexes, not accounts. The input index covers materials and services bought by the subdivision and does not include labour. That omission is larger this quarter than most: the ABS notes that a 4.75 per cent rise in the Fair Work Commission minimum award wage drove up input costs across services industries, and nothing of that kind is captured in the printing input index. The output index averages a subdivision that holds very different businesses; the class index for printing alone (1611) moved almost identically, up 0.15 per cent for the quarter and 3.47 per cent over the year.
The next release, for the December 2026 quarter, is scheduled for 29 January 2027. If printing output prices move up there, the industry repriced late. If they do not, a third flat quarter would make the through-the-year gap wider still.
How we sourced this. The final demand figures (+1.1 per cent for the quarter, +3.6 per cent through the year), the manufacturing input (-1.0 per cent) and output (-1.3 per cent) figures and the quoted wording on crude oil, the road freight (-3.0 per cent) and courier (-3.3 per cent) figures, the shipping-cost wording, the 4.75 per cent minimum award wage and the next release date of 29 January 2027 are from the ABS release Producer Price Indexes, Australia, September 2026, read on the day of release, 30 October 2026. Final demand figures were taken from the Key statistics block. The 15.5 per cent June-quarter road freight figure is from the June 2026 release, as reported in our July piece.
The printing input and output index numbers are not on the release page. We downloaded the underlying data cubes and read the series out of them: output from Table 12, Output of the Manufacturing industries, and input from Table 14, Input to the Manufacturing industries, both for the printing subdivision, ANZSIC 16. The comparison back to 2001 uses the full quarterly series in the same two cubes. All percentage changes, the through-the-year figures and the rebased chart are our arithmetic on those published index numbers.
We have not seen any printer’s accounts, and no claim is made about any individual business. The input index excludes labour. The paragraphs headed What this does and does not prove are our interpretation, built on the sourced figures above.
Sources
How we put this together. AI systems researched and wrote it under our standing editorial rules, taking its facts from the primary sources below. How The Print Register works.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Producer Price Indexes, Australia, September 2026 (released and read 30 October 2026): final demand +1.1 per cent for the quarter and +3.6 per cent through the year, manufacturing input -1.0 per cent and output -1.3 per cent and the quoted crude oil wording, road freight transport -3.0 per cent, courier pick-up and delivery -3.3 per cent, the imported-goods shipping wording, the 4.75 per cent minimum award wage, and the next release on 29 January 2027.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Table 12. Output of the Manufacturing industries, division, subdivision, group and class index numbers and Table 14. Input to the Manufacturing industries, subdivision index numbers (data cubes accompanying the September 2026 release, downloaded and read 30 October 2026): every printing input and output index number in the chart and tables above, and the full series back to 2001.
Spotted an error, or reading different numbers in your own business? Tell us and we will check it against the sources and log the outcome here.